1. Future city

Future City responds to broad question on how urbanisation will continue to develop from the dwellers viewpoint, and what factors will influence this development. 

Future City is divided into three tasks carried out in two phases:

  1. International and national benchmark of the future city trends and a scanning of interesting examples
  2. Scenario building process of the future cities
  3. Modelling the impacts of the various futures.

First phase (co-design)

We start with analysing urban strategies and futures worldwide. VTT together with Spanish partner Tecnalia and Austrian AIT will map interesting experiments from different cities. The analysis will be done by literature search and interviews with experts in our international research network as well as by virtual and physical workshops in selected cities. The literature will cover future outlooks/scenarios/perspectives on city futures, and case examples of cities that have successfully managed their development. The most interesting and promising examples of dweller oriented city development processes are chosen for experimental part of this research project. There are many existing experiences and practices with innovative approaches and governance arrangements to develop socially attractive cities both internationally (ICLEI) and in the Finnish context.

Our task is to identify those cities and analyse them in detail, revealing the indicators that would allow tracing their transformation towards leader cities in the way they attract dwellers.

We are interested in agile and flexible practices and the evolving needs and desires of dwellers around the world. The goal is to translate the benchmark practices into an applicable model of innovative solutions for Finnish cities.

Second phase (co-creation)

In the second phase we look for the drivers and barriers of the Finnish urbanisation processes including the prospective needs of the dwellers in the Finnish cities. Here we consider political, economic, social, technological and environmental themes in qualitative manner in a participatory foresight process together with the key stakeholders by creating scenarios of the future living in Finnish cities. As a part of this driver foresight process, we look for economic prerequisites, challenges and potential of city development by modelling the scenarios in quantitative way.

We use regional, computable general equilibrium modelling to account for the effects of population growth on labour markets and on the demand for age-dependent public services, for the structural change of the regional economies, and the arising new challenges. The scenario building process includes steps as follows:

  1. scoping the scenario field
  2. key factor identification
  3. key factor analysis
  4. scenario generation
  5. scenario transfer

Steps 1-2 are based on the results of the Task 1. Steps 3-5 are done in a participatory manner together with the stakeholders in a workshop process.

We will present the preliminary midterm modelling requirements and consequences of Finnish city futures to the stakeholders of DAC-project and based on the discussions and co-producing process we aim to the final quantitative forecast results of the project. The scenario building process is done and workshops arrenged in close cooperation with the subprojects 2-5.

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